Bitcoin Market Update - Post Halving Market Analysis & Proprietary Mining Strategies to Capture the Opportunity

Bitcoin Continues to Shine amid Global Economic Turmoil

On May 10th, Bitcoin Price corrected ~20% and found support at its 200-day moving average (200 DMA). $10,000 is being tested again. Each retest eats away at Overhead Supply. From the perspective of Technical Analysis, we are witnessing Bitcoin attempt to prove itself as Demand overpowers sellers attempting to keep price down.

Many haven't noticed yet, but 30%+ of the mining network has shut off since the Halving. New Bitcoin is being allocated to more efficient miners who can hold and accumulate. When analyzing solely from the Supply Side, this creates a far more fertile environment for Bitcoin to rally.

What does this mean for Miners and Difficulty? It's critical to understand how Difficulty is calculated and how projections from these Difficulty Estimates are determined. Difficulty Adjustments are determined by the time required to mine the previous 2016 blocks. These calculators are lagging indicators of future Difficulty. 

The Network is set up to mine a block every 10 minutes. During a Difficulty window – 14 days (2016 blocks X 10 minutes per block) if the average block time is greater than 10 minutes, Difficulty adjusts favorably. For example, if it takes an average of 11 minutes to mine a block during a particular Difficulty window (~14 days), then Difficulty will decrease by 10% at the next Difficulty adjustment.

Measuring the past 3 days rather than 14 days (2016 blocks) is a better future indicator. Difficulty just adjusted (-6%) and if the Bitcoin Network Hash Rate remains at present levels and block times remain constant, then Difficulty is estimated to decrease by another 16%-21% between now and the next adjustment. This reflects the immediate impact of the Halving - a net difficulty reduction of 22%-28%. Miners are going to receive margin relief from the Difficulty Adjustment. Bitcoin continues to show strength, which may temper future Miner shut-offs. The Demand Side, driven by Fund and Retail investing, is clearly strong. 

In a Market, only 1 thing matters: Supply & Demand. Never fight the present strongest force that drives price and direction. In Equity Markets, from 2009-2019 it was Central Bank Monetary Policy (QE/ Fed Printing) that drove stocks higher. Over the past 8 weeks, again, the Fed has pushed stocks higher. 

The weakness in the Global Macro environment and the reckless discretionary spending from the Fed is brewing a Perfect Storm for Bitcoin. Our Financial System has an uncertain Monetary Policy. Billionaires, Investment Funds, and Retail participants are taking notice and taking positions. The Nasdaq is positive on the year, but Gold has continued to show immense strength. Gold signals FEAR. You should not fight the price action in the Nasdaq, but indexes near highs coupled with Gold strength is not symbolic of a healthy market. 

If Bitcoin can remain decoupled from US Equities and the market treats it as Digital Gold, than 2020-2021 should be an amazing cycle for Bitcoin. Always follow the present strongest force as that drives market direction - presently, that is the Demand Side being fueled by Funds and Retail money.

Last week we shared our expectations for Hash Rate and Difficulty with our Mining clients, and the impact it would have on the supply and price of available mining rigs if our expectations were accurate (which they have proven to be). Our clients were able to secure mining rigs for immediate install as well as July Batch S19 Pro’s. The S19 Pro’s are now sold out until September (we still have a limited quantity of S19 Pro August batch available as well as S17+ for immediate install). Our clients are now positioned to capitalize on the upcoming Difficulty drop. For live, real-time Bitcoin Market updates, follow us on twitter @blockwareteam and @mjdsouza2.

Capture the Opportunity in Bitcoin Through Mining

We are witnessing a new Hardware Upgrade Cycle for Bitcoin Mining into Halving 2020 - just like the rare opportunity that was presented before the 2016 Halving. Miners who deployed early in the 2016 Hardware Upgrade Cycle outperformed Hodling Bitcoin by 100%+ and returned 1,249%. Contact us directly for the full analysis.

The Mining Market has matured significantly since 2016, so we do not expect the same magnitude of gains in 2020. However, we believe that the "Mine & Play with House Money" strategy remains the most probable strategy to outperform over the long-term (2-4 years). This analysis is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The purpose of this analysis is not to project future returns, but rather to identify the optimal strategy to capture the opportunity in Bitcoin.

Contact us HERE to get up and hashing within 48 hours. Blockware has S17+'s available on hand in the US with all-in Hosting Rates from $0.0575 - $0.075 kWh depending on order quantity. S19 Pro's are now sold out until September, don't miss out on the next 3+ months of Mining