Pomp Podcast #254: Matt D'Souza on the Bitcoin Halving, Miner Sell Pressure, and Why it's Important

This is an episode of The Pomp Podcast with host Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano and guest, Matt D'Souza, the CEO of Blockware Solutions. In this conversation, Anthony and Matt discuss Blockware's recent analysis of miner selling pressure, how profitable various miners are around the world, what to expect during the Bitcoin halving, and how hash rate should fluctuate over the next few months.

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HALVING OCCURRING NOW - Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV's Impact on the Bitcoin Network. Is it a precedent for Bitcoin Halving 2020?

We have been receiving several questions about what will happen with the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) halving this week & whether these are precedents for the Bitcoin Quantitative Hardening. Below are Blockware Solutions expectations:

Several Miners run software to toggle between SHA-256 Protocols based on whichever is most profitable at the moment. This is simply arbitraging protocols to maximize profits which tightens the spread in revenue between each protocol.

As the revenue of BCH & BSV get cut in half, these miners that toggle back and forth will switch over to mining BTC. We expect a slight uptick in Bitcoin Difficulty. If every miner on the BCH & BSV Network switched over to Bitcoin it would increase Difficulty on the Bitcoin Network by 5.2%. BCH and BSV have their evangelists so we do not expect a material impact. We expect the result to be a future Difficulty increase of 1%-2.5% for Bitcoin attributed to BCH and BSV Miners switching over.

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Only 1 Thing Matters - Bitcoin SURVIVED and will Continue to Survive by Itself

The 2020 Market Crash has revealed that our society and many industries are vulnerable and failure prone. But Only 1 Thing Matters - Bitcoin SURVIVED and will Continue to Survive by Itself.

A majority of assets perform well in a Bull Market – you can blindly throw darts at a board and be successful. Bear Markets reveal inefficiencies and pockets ripe for disruption.

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Looking for a Halving Payday? Quick Wins in Investing Are Rare

Many bullish investment theses for bitcoin are grounded in expectations that the upcoming halving of block rewards will cause the bitcoin (BTC) price to increase. Previous supply constrictions, from 50 BTC to 25 BTC and 25 BTC to, where we currently stand, at 12.5 BTC, have had that effect. Still, given the rare nature of these events, our data points are limited and increase the anticipation and speculation around upcoming halving some time in May 2020.

There are many great pieces on the mechanics of a BTC halving and how they were described in the original white paper and subsequently coded into the structure of bitcoin. So I will assume familiarity with these concepts going forward as we try to understand the supply constriction narrative of the halving thesis.

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Stephan Livera Podcast - Bitcoin Halving, Miner Analysis with Blockware CEO Matt D'Souza

Matt D’Souza CEO of Blockware Solutions joins me to talk about his team’s recent research piece on Bitcoin Halving and analysis from a mining perspective. In this conversation, we chat:

  • Market participant profiles

  • Miner electricity distribution

  • Shut off and breakeven cost

  • Mining Rigs

  • Scenario Analysis

  • Why some miners operate at a loss

  • Difficulty adjustment dynamics

  • Why Efficient miners welcome the halving

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Blockware CEO Mathew D'Souza: Bitcoin Mining & Macro Trends HASHR8 Podcast

Blockware Solutions CEO Matt D’Souza joins HASHR8 Podcast to discuss our recent research piece on the impact Bitcoin's Halving will have on miners and when/ how certain operations will be forced to capitulate based on declining profits due to bitcoin's price action. He also shares his insights on why he feels the US will come out of the current global crisis just as strong as when it all started.

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Understanding Bitcoin Market Participants – Vulnerabilities in the Price of Bitcoin Driven by Miners

We analyze the following:

  1. The Bitcoin Network:

    • Who are the market participants and how do they influence the price of Bitcoin?

    • Peeling back the layers of the Mining Network.

  2. How Next Generation Mining Rigs Have Leveled the Playing Field – Keeping High Electricity Rate Miners in the Game.

  3. Busting the Myth – “Breakeven Price of the Miner is a Price Floor.”

  4. Impact of the 2020 Halving on the Bitcoin Industry – Hitting the Trifecta. 

  5. Difficulty: Satoshi’s Ingenious Network Stabilizing Mechanism – Understanding its Gravitational Pull.

  6. How Miner Capitulation Accelerates Bottoms in Bitcoin.

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Blockware Solutions is Proud to Announce the Official Launch of our USA Bitcoin Mining Pool!

Lower Fees + Exceptional Performance = More Bitcoin for YOU

https://bitcoin.blockwarepool.com/

We already have over 100 PH/s mining, ranking Blockware Pool as one of the top 20 largest Bitcoin Pools in the World. One of our 2020 company goals is to do everything we can to bring as much hash power online in the US. If Bitcoin is going to become a Global Reserve Currency, we need more hash power in America to rebalance the 65% of the hash power controlled by China.

Let’s continue to bring hash to America!

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写在第三次减半前:万字解读矿工驱动的比特币价格机制

许多分析人士认为,比特币价格基础来自于矿工生产的收支平衡,但这种说法并不准确,因为有时随着比特币抛售,会让价格加速接近矿工生产成本,所以比特币其实一直存在持续的抛售压力,这种抛压主要来自于矿工。实际上是,比特币价格支撑主要基于矿工投降和网络算力净减少(有利的难度调整),因此了解与比特币矿工有关的价格博弈至关重要。

矿工生产比特币的成本主要来自电费,因为95%的矿工运营成本都是用电量,矿工需要比特币能够处于某一价位(或之上),这样他们赚取的收入就会大于支付的电费,在这种情况下,支付最低电费的比特币矿工就能赚到更多钱,而这就是比较优势。

我们将在本文中主要分析以下几个问题:

1、比特币网络

  • 谁是市场参与者,他们会如何影响比特币的价格?

  • 剥离比特币挖矿网络的各个层。

2、下一代比特币矿机如何平衡竞争环境——矿工如何在挖矿游戏中始终拿到性价比最高的电费。

3、打破神话–“矿工的价格底线就是比特币的价格基础”。

4、2020年比特币区块奖励减半对加密行业的影响——三连击。

5、挖矿难度:中本聪独创的网络稳定机制——了解其竞争力。

6、矿工投降如何加速比特币触底。

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How to Properly Secure Your Digital Currency - a Step by Step Guide by Blockware Solutions

Implementing the following best practices will defend against such attacks and keep a user’s assets safe:

  1. Avoid using a primary or publicly identifiable email address to access exchange accounts -Create a separate, secret email address that will only be utilized for an exchange account.

  2. Utilize a 2FA App, such as Google Authenticator, for securing email and exchange accounts - do NOT use text messages for 2FA.

  3. “Whitelist” withdrawal addresses on exchange accounts. By doing so, digital currency can only be transferred to pre-approved, whitelisted addresses. If an account is compromised the hacker can only send digital currency to the user’s own address.

  4. Remove the Inherent Risk - “Not your Keys, Not your Coins!” Users should always own their private keys and store their digital currency offline. Do NOT store digital currency on exchanges. Users should secure private keys with hardware devices, such as: Ledger Wallet.

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Research ReportMason Jappa
Bitcoin Analysis - Institutional vs Retail Volume Comparison

The signature characteristic of an early stage bull market is First Mover and Institutional Accumulation. The retail and weak hands get shaken out and puke their holdings to the institutions and large holders. These institutions and large holders have long investment time horizons, which is why we refer to them as strong hands. When the strong hands accumulate enough Bitcoin and soak up the weaker hands’ selling, the market will be positioned for significant price advancements as a majority of the selling is now exhausted.

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Weekly NewsletterMason Jappa
Blockware Solutions will be in San Francisco from February 10th - 12th presenting on the current Bitcoin Mining Environment

We are pleased to announce that Blockware Solutions will be a Key Panelist sharing our insights on the Current Bitcoin Mining Environment this week in San Francisco. Several of the premier Crypto Funds, Feeder Funds, Investors, and San Francisco's Early Crypto Adopters will be in attendance at this intimate, invite-only event. There will be a detailed discussion expanding on the operational and financial aspects of Mining, along with the opportunities and challenges in the space.

If you would like to learn more or attend the event, don't hesitate to reach out. We will also be available for meetings between February 10th - 12th, let us know if you would like to meet in SF!

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CME Bitcoin Futures Activity is Heating Up in 2020 - Large Holders, Volume and Open Interest Hit Record Highs in January

CME Bitcoin Futures are solely traded by institutional investors. Each CME Bitcoin Future Contract is equal to 5 Bitcoins: to trade the minimum one Contract, it will cost approximately $45,000 (BTC = $9,000). The product is designed specifically for institutions. Therefore, examining the trading activity on the CME Bitcoin Futures can provide valuable information regarding institutional participation in Bitcoin.

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Weekly NewsletterGuest User
No Asset Follows Trend Better than Bitcoin - How Price Corrections Create Opportunities for Miners to Expand Operations and Upgrade Mining Rigs

Despite the recent correction from $13,880, Bitcoin has rallied significantly from the lows and is attempting to re-establish a long-term uptrend. Historically, the price of Bitcoin is perfectly positively correlated with the price of mining rigs. However, mining rig prices often lag price fluctuations in Bitcoin and have remained near their lows. This provides miners with a great opportunity to expand their operations before the long-term bullish trend is resumed in Bitcoin, and the price of mining rigs surges.

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Weekly NewsletterGuest User
Protos Blockchain Summit Panel in Zurich, Switzerland Featuring Blockware Solutions

Blockware Solutions presented at the Protos Blockchain Summit in Zurich, Switzerland where our CEO Matt D’Souza discussed investment strategies for Crypto Assets on January 17th. Matt talks about proprietary capital deployment strategies and how to maximize returns on Crypto Investments with other industry experts such as:

  • Consensys

  • Protos Asset Management

  • Tezos Foundation

  • Tensor Alpha

  • Cambrial

  • Quantum Capital

  • DLT Capital

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Podcast / VideoMason Jappa
Blockware Solutions will be presenting at this week at the Protos Blockchain Summit in Zurich, Switzerland!

Blockware Solutions is heading to Switzerland where our CEO Matt D’Souza will be presenting his investment strategies for Crypto Assets at the Protos Blockchain Summit, on January 17th. Matt will be discussing proprietary capital deployment strategies and how to maximize returns on Crypto Investments with other industry experts such as: Consensys, Protos Asset Management, Tezos Foundation, Tensor Alpha, Cambrial, Quantum Capital, and DLT Capital.

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Market Response to Iran-US Tensions Strengthens Bitcoin’s case as Digital Gold

We have witnessed multiple instances of geopolitical instability where the market has treated Bitcoin as Digital Gold. Similar to Physical Gold, Bitcoin also tends to be utilized as a tool for capital flight in times of geopolitical uncertainty. We witnessed this dynamic over the past week with Bitcoin rallying on news of escalating US-Iran tensions, and also in 2019 with China’s Yuan devaluations and trade disputes with the US.

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